You Should Worry About 2024
By Patrick N. Theros - December 29, 2023
I
do not normally write in near-apocalyptic terms. Thinking about 2024,
however, wakes me up at night. Preparing to write my annual prophesies, I
reviewed my 2023 prediction. I am shocked at my prophesying accuracy! I
anticipated the GOP House meltdown and Congressional failure to pass
any meaningful legislation; though this was blindingly visible to anyone
except committed partisans. I also nailed Mother Nature taking revenge,
the Ukraine War stalemate, mass shootings, and – on the bright side – a
decreasing inflation rate and low unemployment.
What I did not
predict was an intangible: the break-down in civilized norms. The rise
in pointless mindless crime--i.e., carjacking to joyride not to steal,
shooting a stranger who ‘dissed’ you, ignoring genocide--should frighten
anyone out of their comfortable middle class existence. I
underestimated the callous disregard by members of Congress for
America’s interests in dangerous times, e.g., Senator Tommy “Coach”
Tuberville (R-AL) singlehandedly holding hostage the entire command
structure of the US Armed Forces for almost ten months. Nor should we
ignore the black comedy inflicted on the House of Representatives by
roughly 10 percent of its membership and 20 percent of their party
caucus who cowed majorities into firing the Speaker of the House,
turning the election of his replacement into a circus, and bringing the
US twice to the brink of economic disaster. The right wing
hostage-taking threatened not only to derail the economy but to help
Putin in his aggression against Ukraine.
To be fair, the left has
joined the right in collapsing civilizational norms. Both have
launched a massive assault on free speech and even free thought. Tiny
numbers of ideologically motivated activists wrapped in “leftist”
mantles intimidate college professors over pronoun usage and force
universities to shut down student organizations, speakers and
publications because they might make some students “feel uncomfortable.”
Some place along the way they missed the memo that requires education
to make students “uncomfortable” to kick-start them into thinking.
Similarly, tiny numbers of ideologically motivated activists
masquerading as concerned parents and wrapped in “rightist” mantles
intimidate libraries and school boards into banning access to books
which they dislike and denying the right of all other parents to decide
what their kids should read. Even worse, democratically elected state
governors have attempted to “erase” the rights and dignity of tens of
millions of Americans; most horribly by trying to erase the inhumanity
of slavery from schoolbooks.
The current unspeakable horror in
Gaza, inflicting the worst carnage in the history of the 75 year old
Israeli-Palestinian conflict has unleashed an unprecedented assault on
free speech and academic leadership. In scenes reminiscent of the “Red
Scare” and 1950s McCarthyism, a kangaroo court posing as a congressional
hearing browbeat three distinguished University Presidents because they
tried, albeit clumsily, to explain the difference between free speech
and incitement. Rich donors then attempted to get them fired,
successfully in the case of the University of Pennsylvania.
Astoundingly, racists -- many of whom are themselves antisemites –have
now joined the fight against Harvard’s black woman President.
I
fear that my “end of 2024” article will chronicle one of the worst years
in American history. The Ukraine war will continue in its dreary gory
imitation of World War I. Modern technology makes war of maneuver
unacceptably costly; for example, the drones spot anything moving and
call down artillery fire. The battle lines will remain more or less
static through the year. The MAGA House members will not succeed in
blocking aid to Ukraine and hand Russia a victory. Biden will continue
to keep aid to Ukraine and Israel (MAGA’s sacrosanct issue) in one
legislative package. Netanyahu will continue flipping a finger to the
US, press on with his campaign to eradicate Gaza’s two million people –
the only feasible way to eradicate Hamas. Once the Israeli air force
exhausts its target list in Gaza, I fear Netanyahu will find or
fabricate an excuse to turn it loose on Lebanon. There may not be a
ground war; the IDF will still be tied up fighting Hamas in Gaza’s
rubble. Nor does the IDF want to engage in a ground war against
Hezbollah, which defeated it in 2006. Netanyahu’s political survival
requires endless war, and, like Putin, he desperately needs Trump
winning the November elections. He will try to provoke an American war
with Iran, a war that will gravely damage the world economy. At that
point, Biden can kiss the November elections goodbye. I have no idea
when Biden will tumble to the fact that Netanyahu has played him.
On
the other hand, if the Gaza war winds down, the American economy will
continue to chug along, as in 2023, creating jobs, lowering inflation
and growing economic output. Unions will grow and slowly decrease
economic inequality, leaving the average American actually better off
(even if they think otherwise) than in 2023. The only other significant
threat to America’s economic well-being, is the MAGA House caucus going
off the rails and closing down the government. House Speaker Mike
Johnson’s record so far gives comfort; his right wing extremism appears
focused on cultural issues. Representing a district that has an outsize
reliance on federal benefits, Johnson will try to keep the government
open. Sadly, I expect further collapse of civilized norms, worsening
culture wars to grow more violent, increasing the butcher’s bill from
racial violence, drugs and mass shootings.
I
make no predictions for the Big Question, the November elections. To
win, Biden needs to pull a rabbit out of his hat, convert the Gaza
tragedy into a lasting settlement to the overall Israeli-Palestinian
conflict, convince voters that they have indeed prospered, and persuade
them that Trump is a real threat to democracy, while preparing to deal
with the inevitable Unpredictable. Happy New Year!